The idea sounds tempting: Buy an ungraded (raw) coin cheaply, submit it for appraisal, receive a top grade from NGC or PCGS, and then sell it at a significant premium or hold it long-term. In practice, however, this strategy is not a “trick” but a skilled trade with clear rules, real costs, and several typical pitfalls.
Especially in the market for gold coins and modern collector coins, the step from raw condition to certified grading is often the difference between a sound purchase and an expensive disappointment. At Wasserthal RareCoin.Store, we regularly experience both sides: cases where grading creates significant added value, and cases where it completely negates the price advantage.
This guide shows you in a technically sound way when the “raw-to-slab” approach is worthwhile, when you should refrain from using it, and how to reduce the risk in a structured manner.
1) What does “hoping for a high grade” really mean?
Many beginners think primarily about the number on the label when it comes to grading: MS70, PF70, MS69, PF69. In reality, with certification you’re not just buying a grade, but three things at once :
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Authenticity check
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Condition rating (Grade)
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Market standardization (liquidity and comparability)
And this is precisely the crux of the matter: they are not just speculating on “a high number”, but on market recognition that this piece, in exactly this condition, deserves a defined premium level.
2) The most important principle: Not every coin is a grading candidate.
The most common misconception is:
“The coin looks good, so grading is worthwhile.”
In reality, the following is more likely:
A coin not only has to look good, it also has to be “gradable”.
Specifically, this means: She must
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have original surface (no cleaning, no polishing),
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show no critical bag marks or hairlines ,
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have no distracting stains (particularly relevant depending on the series),
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and most importantly: to be in a segment where grading is actually paid for in the market.
Because an MS69 or PF69 is not automatically “bad”, but sometimes economically unattractive if the coin in its raw state is already close to the price of a 69.
3) The two markets: “Bullion logic” vs. “Collector logic”
Before you buy ungraded coins, you need to understand which market you are operating in.
A) Bullion logic (metal value dominates)
The primary focus here is:
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Spot price
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premium
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liquidity
Examples: classic bullion coins in normal years, without a special collector’s story.
Grading is rarely worthwhile here , except:
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Absolute top condition (e.g., genuine MS70 candidates),
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Special editions, privy marks, limited editions,
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or a clear collectors’ market in the background.
B) Collector logic (premium dominates)
The primary focus here is:
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State of preservation
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Rarity
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Demand for top pop / best-in-grade
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Set-building in the market
In this world, a single point on the scale can multiply the price. And that’s precisely where grading can be extremely useful.
4) The real cost block: What grading really costs
Many people only consider the grading fee when calculating “raw-to-slab” costs. In practice, the total cost consists of several items:
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Grading fee (depending on value, service level, country)
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Shipping there and back
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Insurance / Risk
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Waiting period (capital commitment)
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possible return (e.g., “Details”, “Genuine”, “No Grade”)
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Possibly holders or crossovers
Therefore, the most important rule is:
If your strategy only works when everything goes perfectly, it’s not a strategy, it’s hope.
5) The 7 most important risks when buying ungraded coins (and why they are expensive)
Risk 1: Cleaning – the most common killer
A cleaned coin may look shiny, but be “dead” in terms of grading.
The problem: Cleaning is not always immediately apparent, especially not in mobile phone photos.
Typical signs:
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unnaturally uniform shine
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“Swipe marks” in the field
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missing original surface
If PCGS/NGC classifies a cleaning process as problematic, the following may occur:
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Detail-Grade
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massive loss in value compared to a numerically graded coin
Risk 2: Hairlines – especially brutal in Proof
Proof coins are delicate. The slightest hairline cracks in the mirror finish are often the difference between:
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PF70 and PF69
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PF69 and details
Many ungraded proofs appear “perfect” at first glance, until they are tilted under light.
Risk 3: Contact marks and bag marks (Mint State)
Mint State does not mean “flawless”. Especially with larger gold coins, even small contact marks are enough to prevent them from reaching the top grade.
Risk 4: Spots, milk spots, toning, haze
Depending on the series, stains can drastically reduce market value, even for high-quality items. Some themes are tolerated in certain markets, others are not.
Risk 5: Edge errors and micro-things
Tiny edge flaws may seem harmless, but they are relevant to the grading. And they are extremely common on ungraded coins.
Risk 6: Counterfeits and “deals that are too good to be true”
Especially with gold, caution is advised when the price is significantly below market value.
The market is liquid. Bargains are rarely real bargains.
Risk 7: Expectation error: “That’s at least 70”
The most dangerous point is not the coin, but the expectation.
Many buyers are too optimistic in their assessments because they underestimate the micro-thresholds of the top grades.
6) When does the raw-to-slab strategy really pay off?
Here is the sober, practical rule that we at Wasserthal RareCoin.Store can confirm from a retailer’s perspective:
Grading is particularly worthwhile if…
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They see clear upgrade potential
Example: Raw looks realistic, like MS69/70 or PF69/70. -
The price difference between raw and top-grade is large.
If MS69 is worth hardly more than Raw, the leverage is lacking. -
the coin is considered “grading-driven” in the market
In other words: Buyers actively pay for slab, grade, and certificate. -
They have access to very good material
e.g. original sets, first ownership, clean storage, OGP. -
You can check the coin correctly
Light, magnifying glass, experience, comparison pieces.
Grading is usually not worth it if…
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The coin only fetches spot price plus a small premium anyway.
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The photos/information are too poor.
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They buy “blindly”.
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They only buy the coin in the hope of 70
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the 69ers market segment not paid
7) Decision system: 3-step check before purchase
Stage 1: Market check (without touching any coins)
Questions:
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Is there even a strong slab market for this coin?
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Is there a clear price difference between Raw, 69 and 70?
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Collectors actively buy this graded edition?
If not: Buying raw is okay, but grading is often unnecessary.
Stage 2: Object check (the coin itself)
Check:
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Original surface or “reworked”?
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Proof: Hairlines? Haze?
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Mint State: Bagmarks? Margin error?
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Stains/spots?
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Overall appearance: does it look “premium-worthy”?
Stage 3: Risk calculation (realistic, not optimistic)
Don’t expect the best-case scenario, but rather:
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One level lower than expected
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or, if in doubt, “details”
If the deal still makes sense then, it’s a good candidate.
8) Graded coins as an alternative: When is this the better decision?
Many collectors don’t want to speculate, they want to buy safely. That’s perfectly rational.
Buying graded items is often better if:
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You want an investment with predictable liquidity
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You don’t want any hassle with submission, shipping and risk.
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You are specifically looking for a top grade (e.g. PF70)
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You want to make resale as easy as possible later on.
Especially in the premium segment, it is often more efficient to buy a correctly graded piece directly, instead of testing three raw pieces and ending up with only a 69.
At Wasserthal RareCoin.Store, we see in practice that many experienced buyers proceed exactly this way: They buy the note, not the hope.
9) Typical beginner mistakes (and how to avoid them)
Mistake A: “I pick everything that looks beautiful”
Better: Only do so if genuine market leverage exists.
Mistake B: “70 is just luck”
Partly, yes. But for many coins, 70 isn’t a lucky number, but rather:
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correct selection
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perfect storage
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no handling
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clean surface
Mistake C: “The certificate makes the coin valuable”
The certificate makes it tradable , but it becomes valuable through:
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demand
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Rarity
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Condition
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Market logic
Mistake D: “I buy cheap because it’s ungraded”
Ungraded is not automatically cheaper. It is simply less standardized.
10) Conclusion: Hope is not a business model – structure is.
Buying ungraded coins and hoping for a high grade can be worthwhile. But only if you don’t see it as gambling, but rather as a structured grading project .
If you:
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to be able to properly check the coin,
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Calculate the costs realistically,
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and choose a market segment where grading is paid,
Then raw-to-slab can be a very strong strategy.
If, on the other hand:
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without experience,
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without testing tools,
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and without market logic
If you speculate on a 70, there’s a high probability that you’ll end up with not a profit, but a costly lesson.
At Wasserthal RareCoin.Store, we therefore recommend a clear approach: Only buy ungraded coins with the intention of grading them if you already know, before purchasing, exactly why that particular piece is a candidate. And if you are a long-term collector, it can often be more sensible to buy graded coins directly rather than experiencing expensive surprises later on.
FAQ
Is buying ungraded goods generally a bad thing?
No. Ungraded can be a good option if the price and risk are right and you don’t necessarily need a grade.
Is MS69 or PF69 automatically a bad result?
No. In many series, 69 is excellent. The crucial factor is whether the market is paying a disproportionately high price for 70.
What is the most common reason why a coin doesn’t receive a top grade?
Proof: Hairlines and haze. Mint State: Contact marks and minor edge defects.
Should I, as a beginner, buy graded boots?
Yes, in most cases. It reduces risk and makes the market more transparent.
Further reading: To help you decide whether to buy ungraded coins and hope for a high grade, we have put together some further reading materials here:
Getting started in gold coin collecting: considerations, uncertainties, and benefits.
